Paleogeography modulates marine extinction risk throughout the Phanerozoic

Understanding the factors that have influenced the intensity and selectivity of extinction throughout Earth history is critical for explaining past biodiversity loss and associated implications for the present biotic crisis. Here, we investigate the role of coastline geometry and paleogeographic boundary conditions in shaping extinction risk for shallow-marine-restricted taxa across 540 million years of Earth history. Our findings reveal that interactions between the geographic distributions of taxa and the geometric configurations of continental margins significantly predict relative extinction risk throughout the Phanerozoic: taxa with longer potential dispersal pathways, often associated with east-west oriented coastlines, islands, or inland seaways, consistently exhibit higher extinction risk than taxa with shorter potential dispersal pathways. In contrast to many other predictors of extinction risk, dispersal distance selectivity is amplified during mass extinction events and hyper..., , , # Paleogeography modulates marine extinction risk throughout the Phanerozoic

## Overview

This repository contains all code, data, and computational details used in the analyses for:

**Malanoski, C.M., Finnegan, S., Huang, E.C., Blake, L., Mac Niocaill, C., & Saupe, E.E. (2025).**
*Paleogeography modulates marine extinction risk throughout the Phanerozoic.* *Science*.

This study quantifies how paleogeography influenced marine extinction risk through the Phanerozoic by combining plate-tectonic reconstructions, coastline-derived dispersal metrics, and PBDB occurrence data in stage-resolved extinction models.

## Repository Structure

```text
data (Supplement)/
dat_rotated.csv
Distance to track_5_data.csv
Distance to track_10_data.csv
Distance to track_15_data.csv
models_koc_5.csv
models_koc_10.csv
models_koc_15.csv
good_dispersing_genera.csv
massext_tab.csv

code/
Driving_distance_algorithm_5_degrees.R
Driving_distance_algorithm_10_degrees.R
Driving_distance_alg...,