Predicting long-term outcomes in people with psoriasis who initially respond to systemic immunomodulatory therapy

Psoriasis is a common skin condition affecting around 1 in 50 people worldwide. It causes red scaly patches on the skin and there is currently no cure. People with more severe psoriasis often need treatments that work throughout the body, given as tablets or injections. These treatments are called systemic immunomodulatory therapies and calm the overactive immune system that drives psoriasis.

Newer injectable medicines called biologics, which are made from living cells, target specific parts of the immune system involved in psoriasis. They are often more effective than older treatments and can help more people get their psoriasis under control (i.e. achieve clear/nearly clear skin). Unfortunately, not everyone can keep their psoriasis under control in the long term, even if they continue taking treatment.

Currently, we cannot predict if a person will keep their psoriasis under control when they stay on a particular treatment. This uncertainty can be very worrying for patients. It also means that many people are asked to attend regular hospital appointments even when they are doing well, while others who need closer follow-up may struggle to access timely care.

In this project, we aim to develop statistical models that can estimate an individual’s chance of staying clear or nearly clear on systemic treatment. We will create these models using real-world data collected from dermatology clinics and then test how well they perform using separate data from clinical trials.

This research will help people better understand how likely they are to keep their psoriasis under control while receiving a tablet or injection treatment. It will also allow healthcare professionals to provide care which is better matched to each patient’s needs. This could improve the patient experience and allow healthcare resources to be used more efficiently.