CDC COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Ensemble Forecast Archive

This dataset contains forecasted weekly numbers of reported COVID-19 incident cases, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths in the United States, previously reported on COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home). These forecasts were generated using mathematical models by CDC partners in the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensemble/). A CDC ensemble model was produced every week using the submitted models from that week at the national, and state/territory level.

This dataset is intended to mirror the observed and forecasted data, previously available for download on the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker. Mortality forecasts for both new and cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths were produced at the state and territory level and national level. Forecasts of new reported COVID-19 cases were produced at the county, state/territory, and national level. Please note that this dataset is not complete for every model, date, location or combination thereof. Specifically, county level submissions for COVID-19 incident cases were accepted, but not required, and are missing or incomplete for many models and dates. State and territory-level forecasts are more complete, but not all models submitted forecasts for all locations, dates, and targets (new reported deaths, new reported cases, and cumulative reported deaths). Forecasts for COVID-19 incident cases were discontinued in February 2022. Forecasts for COVID-19 cumulative and incident deaths were discontinued in March 2023.
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