Data_Sheet_1_Impact of Decadal Trends in the Surface Climate of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre on the Marine Environment of the Barents Sea.pdf

The Barents Sea is a key region in the Earth System and is home to highly productive marine resources. An integrated approach for strategic sustainable management of marine resources in such shelf-sea marine ecosystems requires, among many other aspects, a robust understanding of the impact of climate on local oceanic conditions. Here, using a combined observational and modelling approach, we show that decadal climatic trends associated with the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG), within the period 1960–2019, have an impact on oceanic conditions in the Barents Sea. We relate hydrographic conditions in the Barents Sea to the decadal variability of the SPG through its impact on the Atlantic Inflow via the Faroe-Shetland Channel and the Barents Sea Opening. When the SPG warms, an increase in the throughput of subtropical waters across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge is followed by an increase in the volume of Atlantic Water entering the Barents Sea. These changes are reflected in pronounced decadal trends in the sea-ice concentration and primary production in the Barents Sea, which follow the SPG after an advective delay of 4–5 years. This impact of the SPG on sea-ice and primary production provides a dynamical explanation of the recently reported 7-year lagged statistical relationship between SPG and cod (Gadus morhua) biomass in the Barents Sea. Overall, these results highlight a potential for decadal ecosystem predictions in the Barents Sea.

巴伦支海作为地球系统中的关键区域，孕育着丰富的海洋生物资源。针对此类陆架海域海洋生态系统中的海洋资源战略可持续管理，需要从众多方面入手，其中之一便是对气候对局部海洋状况影响的有力理解。本研究采用观测与建模相结合的方法，揭示出与北大西洋亚极地环流（SPG）相关的十年气候变化趋势，在1960年至2019年期间，对巴伦支海的海洋状况产生了影响。通过其影响通过法罗群岛-设得兰海峡和巴伦支海开口对大西洋流的影响，我们将巴伦支海的海洋学条件与SPG的十年变率联系起来。当SPG变暖时，随着亚热带水域通过格陵兰-苏格兰脊的通过量增加，进入巴伦支海的北大西洋水流体积也随之增加。这些变化在巴伦支海的海洋冰浓度和初级生产力的十年趋势中得到了反映，并在SPG之后经过4至5年的动力延迟。SPG对海洋冰和初级生产力的影响，为近期报道的SPG与巴伦支海鳕鱼（Gadus morhua）生物量之间7年滞后统计关系提供了动态解释。总体而言，这些结果凸显了在巴伦支海进行十年生态系统预测的潜力。