Data for: Recent range shifts of moths, butterflies, and birds are driven by the breadth of their climatic niche

Species are altering their ranges as a response to climate change, but the
magnitude and direction of observed range shifts vary considerably among
species. The ability to persist in current areas and colonize new areas
plays a crucial role in determining which species will thrive and which
decline as climate change progresses. Several studies have sought to
identify characteristics, such as morphological and life-history traits,
that could explain differences in the capability of species to shift their
ranges together with a changing climate. These characteristics have
explained variation in range shifts only sporadically, thus offering an
uncertain tool for discerning responses among species. As long-term
selection to past climates have shaped species’ tolerances, metrics
describing species’ contemporary climatic niches may provide an
alternative means for understanding responses to on-going climate change.
Species that occur in a broader range of climatic conditions may hold
greater tolerance to climatic variability and could therefore more readily
maintain their historical ranges, while species with more narrow
tolerances may only persist if they are able to shift in space to track
their climatic niche. Here, we provide a first-filter test of the effect
of climatic niche dimensions on shifts in the leading range edges in three
relatively well-dispersing species groups. Based on the realized changes
in the northern range edges of 383 moth, butterfly, and bird species
across a boreal 1100 km latitudinal gradient over c. 20 years, we show
that while most morphological or life-history traits were not strongly
connected with range shifts, moths and birds occupying a narrower thermal
niche and butterflies occupying a broader moisture niche across their
European distribution show stronger shifts towards the north. Our results
indicate that the climatic niche may be important for predicting responses
under climate change and as such warrants further investigation of
potential mechanistic underpinnings.