Species distribution point

Understanding how climate change impacts species distribution has become a central issue in conservation ecology and biodiversity management. As the largest extant amphibian species and a critically endangered vertebrate, the Chinese giant salamander (<i>Andrias davidianus</i>) serves as an important indicator for aquatic ecosystem health and climate vulnerability. In this study, we applied an ensemble species distribution modeling approach to reconstruct the historical distribution, assess the current habitat suitability, and project future range dynamics of <i>A. davidianus</i> across China. Key environmental drivers were identified, with the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (40.1%) being the most influential variable, followed by mean diurnal range (26.3%) and elevation (15.9%). Since the Mid-Holocene, the total suitable habitat has expanded nearly tenfold, reaching 148.31 × 10⁴ km² under current climatic conditions. By the 2090s, under the low-emission scenario (SSP126), suitable habitats are projected to expand northwestward with a net areal increase, while under the high-emission scenario (SSP585), habitats will become increasingly fragmented and shift southeastward, accompanied by slight contraction. The distribution centroid has consistently migrated northeastward since the historical period and is expected to continue this trajectory in the future. Our findings provide critical insights into the climate-driven habitat dynamics of <i>A. davidianus</i> and highlight the urgency of integrating climate adaptation into the conservation planning for this iconic endangered species.