Scaling up gas and electric cooking in low- and middle-income countries: Climate threat or mitigation strategy with co-benefits?

Nearly three billion people in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) rely on polluting fuels, resulting in millions of avoidable deaths annually. Polluting fuels also emit short-lived climate forcers and greenhouse gases (GHGs). Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and grid-based electricity are scalable alternatives to polluting fuels but have raised climate and health concerns. Here, we compare emissions and climate impacts of a business-as-usual household cooking fuel trajectory to four large-scale transitions to gas and/or grid electricity in 77 LMICs. We account for upstream and end-use emissions from gas and electric cooking, assuming electrical grids evolve according to the 2022 World Energy Outlook’s “Stated Policies” Scenario. We input the emissions into a reduced-complexity climate model to estimate radiative forcing and temperature changes associated with each scenario. We find full transitions to LPG and/or electricity decrease emissions from both well-mixed GHG and short-lived ..., Primary input data was collected from the following sources:

Baseline household fuel choices - WHO household energy database (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26036-x)
End-use emissions - US EPA lifecycle assessment of household fuels (https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=339679&Lab=NRMRL&simplesearch=0&showcriteria=2&sortby=pubDate&timstype=Published+Report&datebeginpublishedpresented) 
Upstream emissions - Argonne National Labs GREET Model (https://greet.es.anl.gov/index.php)
Current and future population estimates - UNECA (http://data.un.org/Explorer.aspx?d=EDATA)

Input data was processed by defining household fuel choice scenarios, estimating national household fuel consumption based on these scenarios, and applying fuel-specific emission factors to create country-specific emission pathways. These emission pathways were input into the FaIR model (https://zenodo.org/record/5513022#.Yt_jfHbMLb0) which generated additional..., All data is provided in CSV format. Nothing proprietary is required.Â