Data for Projected impact of sea-level rise and urbanization on mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) habitat along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas through 2100

Gulf coastal marshes support a wide variety of wildlife, are important nurseries for commercially-harvested fisheries, and help reduce erosion and flooding. Threatened by sea level rise, subsidence, and increased development along the coast, these marshes have been declining at alarming rates since the 1970s. Effective conservation planning is vital for protecting these habitats to ensure the best use of limited resources, but decision makers often lack knowledge of expected future conditions. We created a flexible decision support tool that integrates sea level rise projections and urban growth models to evaluate habitat suitability for a species of conservation concern, the mottled duck (Anas fulvigula). This tool allows us to identify, compare, and prioritize current and predicted future habitat. Specifically, our tool predicts future mottled duck hen breeding and brooding habitat under projected urban development and sea level rise through the year 2100 in 20-year time steps. Models predicted overall habitat quality for mottled duck hens will decline with decreasing amounts of coastal marsh habitats, with the highest rate of habitat loss within the Chenier Plain region. These models highlight areas particularly vulnerable to sea level rise, help to identify areas most likely to persist as quality mottled duck habitat into the future, and identify high priority areas for mottled duck conservation actions, such as restoration. See Moon et al. (in Review) for full methods.