The Aftermath of Sovereign Debt Crises: A Narrative Approach
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<p class="editor-paragraph" dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">This paper investigates the causal effects of sovereign debt crises in a sample of 50 defaulting economies between 1870 and 2010. As default is potentially endogenous, we use the narrative approach to identify plausibly exogenous episodes. We find economically and statistically significant costs of up to 3.2 percent of GDP before recovering to the pre-crisis level after five years. The average aftermath, however, conceals a large heterogeneity by default cause. Defaults originating from negative supply shocks, political crises, or adverse terms of trade are associated with higher costs. Demand shocks, in contrast, have a moderate effect that is quickly reversed.</span></p>
提供机构：
Lund University; Centre for Macroeconomics; The London School of Economics and Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research; Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies; University College Cork; Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence
