Table_2_Hitting the Target but Missing the Mark: Unintended Environmental Consequences of the Paris Climate Agreement.xlsx

Meeting climate mitigation and sustainable development goals requires rapid increases in both renewable energy development and carbon storage in ecosystems. If sited with the sole goal of maximizing production, renewable energy may negatively impact biodiversity and carbon storage. Here, we evaluated the potential unintended environmental consequences of this type of business-as-usual development scenario. We spatially allocated land-based, utility-scaled wind and solar energy needed to achieve emission reduction goals from nationally determined contributions under the Paris Climate Agreement. Siting was conducted at 1-km resolution and followed a scenario where on-shore wind, concentrated solar power, and photovoltaic solar renewable energy developments were located where wind and solar resources were highest. Once sited, we evaluated the potential losses of natural lands, Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs), threatened and endangered species, and carbon emissions. Over 11 million ha of natural lands can be lost, releasing almost 415 million tons of carbon storage, which equals 8.6% of overall Paris Agreement emission reduction goals. Globally we found that over 3.1 million ha of KBAs and ranges of 1,574 threatened and endanger species could be impacted, with the highest number of impacted species in the tropical countries of Indonesia (282), Malaysia (273), and Thailand (253). Avoiding land-based emissions through improved renewable energy siting can reduce these losses, potentially saving $47.5–$155.9 billion USD based on social carbon costs. Consideration of these impacts will help reduce investor risk to facilitate a timely transition to a low-carbon economy.

为实现减缓气候变化和可持续发展的目标，迫切需要加快可再生能源的开发和生态系统中的碳储存。若仅以最大化生产为目标进行选址，可再生能源的发展可能会对生物多样性和碳储存产生负面影响。本研究评估了此类常规发展场景可能产生的未预见的环境后果。我们基于国家确定贡献（NDCs）下的巴黎气候协定排放减少目标，对地面、公用事业规模的风能和太阳能进行了空间分配。选址以1公里分辨率进行，并遵循了岸上风能、集中式太阳能和光伏太阳能可再生能源开发位于风能和太阳能资源最高的地区的情景。一旦选址确定，我们评估了自然土地、关键生物多样性区域（KBAs）、受威胁和濒危物种以及碳排放的潜在损失。超过1100万公顷的自然土地可能遭受损失，释放近4.15亿吨碳储存，相当于巴黎协定整体减排目标的8.6%。全球范围内，我们发现超过310万公顷的KBAs以及1574种受威胁和濒危物种的栖息地可能受到影响，其中印度尼西亚（282种）、马来西亚（273种）和泰国（253种）受影响物种数量最多。通过改善可再生能源的选址以避免地面排放，可以减少这些损失，根据社会碳成本，可能节省475亿至1559亿美元。考虑这些影响将有助于降低投资者的风险，从而促进及时向低碳经济的转型。