中国国土空间形态演化模式及其影响因素

[Objective] This study constructs a unified-scale evaluation framework for territorial spatial morphology, and reveals the “agglomeration-fragmentation” evolution characteristics and influencing factors of urban, agricultural, and ecological spaces in China from 2010 to 2020, thereby providing quantitative evidence for optimizing territorial spatial morphology in the new era. [Methods] Based on national land use datasets for 2010 and 2020, the HEALPix-Quadtree (HPQT) algorithm was employed to measure the system fragmentation of urban, agricultural, and ecological spaces at the county level. K-means was used to identify patterns of fragmentation change, and logistic regression was applied to analyze the relationships of different evolution patterns with natural and socio-economic characteristics. [Results] (1) From 2010 to 2020, territorial spatial fragmentation in China showed highly structured regional differentiation, characterized by urban fragmentation in the east and agglomeration in the west, intensified fragmentation in core agricultural areas, and overall stabilization of ecological space. This pattern was highly coupled with the spatial layout of major function-oriented zones (MFOZ). (2) Six typical evolution patterns of territorial spatial morphology were summarized, and significant differences across patterns were observed in urbanized areas, major agricultural product-producing areas, and key ecological function zones, highlighting structural issues such as urban spillover and diffusion, agricultural shrinkage and fragmentation, and localized ecological encroachment. (3) After controlling for natural topography, locational gradients, and socio-economic conditions, regional development orientation variables had significant and directionally specific effects on different spatial morphology evolution patterns, indicating that spatial morphology evolution was not a simple mapping of natural conditions but the result of sustained institutional guidance under given constraints. [Conclusion] The evolution of territorial spatial morphology in China demonstrates significant regional differences and type differentiation. Based on the existing pattern of spatial functional differentiation, strengthening fine-grained morphological governance—by promoting clustered agglomeration of urban space, contiguous agricultural land consolidation, and continuous and integrated ecological space—will support the transition from scale-oriented control to structure- and morphology-oriented governance.