Comparison of probabilistic forecast accuracy by the best-performing and the baseline forecast approaches.

Numbers show the relative difference in mean log score computed using Eq 6, the median of pairwise difference in log score (95% CI of the median); asterisk (*) indicates if the median is significantly >0 or <0 at the α = 0.05 level, per a Wilcoxon rank sum test. Positive numbers indicate superior performance of the best-performing forecast approach.