FutureCISI: Future projections on critical infrastructure developments and economic assets

Europe’s critical infrastructure (CI) faces rising exposure to coastal flooding. This study develops spatially explicit future scenarios for CI exposure across five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for 2030, 2050, and 2100. Future infrastructure density (FutureCISI) is estimated using a regression model linking population with the infrastructure density index. Validation yields a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.03. Almost all projections showed an increase in urban areas within coastal regions. While the FutureCISI dataset is subject to uncertainties from the SSPs, the population projections and the regression model’s limitations, it provides the best available estimate of future infrastructure exposure, supporting long-term risk assessment and planning under different development trajectories.