Global marine climate-sensitive zones, stability zones and climate refugia for biodiversity

Global changes threaten marine species, making marine climate refugia (MCR) essential for biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. Our analysis maps sensitive and stability zones across the global ocean. We define MCR as climate-resilient zones with global conservation consensus under the worst-case emissions scenario for 2100. MCR span 17.6 million km², with 96% within exclusive economic zones (EEZs). Only 34% of oceanic areas and 29% of marine protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures lie in stability zones. Twenty large-scale patches form the principal bodies of MCR, with 85% crossing multiple EEZs. Conservation gaps cover 70% of MCR. Closing these gaps could increase global ocean protection to 14% and EEZ protection to 30%. To achieve the 30 by 30 target, we recommend expanding marine protected areas based on MCR locations and addressing transnational management challenges.