Management of the wolf in the transition of its condition from "highly protected" to "protected". The case of Italy

The study examines official data regarding the estimated population of Canis lupus in Europe. Data are compared with those published by the scientific advisory body of the Italian Ministry for the Environment and Energy Security. Following the official change in the wolf's status from "specially protected" to "protected" the latter proposed amending the Habitats Directive to include planned culling as a means of controlling the wolf population. The findings highlight the disparity in wolf population estimates in peninsular Italy (Apennines) between the data reported by the two official sources. The EU data from the latest 2022 census report an Apennine population of 1,366 animals, an 86% increase, while the ISPRA data from the 2022 census report an average number of 2,388 peninsular wolves. Developing the average densities reported by ISPRA for 13 Apennine sample areas across the entire Apennine agricultural-forestry-pastoral area (152,971 km2), the population would be 9,555 wolves. The numerical difference would be considerably different from that reported by the overall estimate (8,189 vs. 2,388 animals). This would result in a density difference (6.25 wolves/100 km2 vs. 0.89 wolves/100 km2) that is too marked, and currently unprovable, to justify culling for population control purposes in Italy.