HIV incidence rate per 100 person-years in year 2016 for different potential scenarios of future ART scale-up.

Number of adults (age 15 y and older) initiating ART between midpoint of the previous year and the midpoint of indicated year.aHIV incidence rate per 100 susceptible person-years amongst 15- to 49-y-olds at midpoint of year 2016.bCumulative number of additional new infections over the period mid-2011 to mid-2016 compared to “baseline" future scale-up scenario (rounded to nearest 1,000).cThe Eaton model reports posterior mean and 95% credible intervals.