AAES-10088-R25-38: Locked Reviewer-Revision Results for GOES Solar-Flare Robustness, Sensitivity, Uncertainty, and HLV/DeltaPhi Ablation v1.0.3

This record contains the locked scientific results of the reviewer-requested robustness, sensitivity, uncertainty, and ablation analyses for manuscript AAES #10088, “A Multi-Channel Instability-Screening Framework for Retrospective Solar-Flare Precursor Analysis Using GOES Observations.” The analysis was executed under the prospectively frozen scientific protocol: Krüger, M. (2026). “AAES-10088-R25-38: Pre-Execution Analysis Freeze for Reviewer-Requested Robustness, Sensitivity, Uncertainty, and Ablation Tests of GOES Solar-Flare Temporal Association v1.0.” Zenodo. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22194810. The authoritative execution used the corrected implementation: Krüger, M. (2026). “AAES-10088-R25-38: Corrected Implementation Freeze for Protocol-Compliant Bootstrap and Monthly Reportability Logic v1.0.3.” Zenodo. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22201088. Version 1.0.3 was executed without changing the frozen scientific configuration. The run addresses Reviewer Comments 25–38 and evaluates shared-source susceptibility, precursor-window sensitivity, overlapping event windows, post-flare contamination, rolling-window sensitivity, chronological threshold holdout performance, bootstrap uncertainty, flare-class stratification, strict first-crossing lead-time semantics, relative and detrended variability, causal normalization, HLV/DeltaPhi incremental contribution, and temporal robustness across 2024. The HEK catalogue retrieval audit completed successfully. All 133 accepted HEK leaf requests were unsaturated, with a maximum returned count of 761 against a declared result limit of 5000. The retrieved and filtered HEK/SWPC/GOES catalogue contained 4007 C-, M-, and X-class events over the requested analysis interval. For the January 2024 anchor analysis, 320 C-class-or-larger events were identified: 289 C-class and 31 M-class events. The raw rolling-variance feature with L = 200 samples and a 6-h post-event purge yielded AUC = 0.830676. The log-difference variance yielded AUC = 0.891217. A chronological holdout analysis of the L = 200 variance feature yielded AUC = 0.760489. The block-bootstrap 95% interval for the anchor AUC was approximately [0.725451, 0.927770]. However, the train-selected operating threshold produced TPR ≈ 0.858 and FPR ≈ 0.907, with specificity ≈ 0.093. The results therefore do not support an operational forecasting claim. Overlap sensitivity was substantial. All 320 anchor events overlapped at least one other precursor window, and approximately 94.67% of positive samples were multiply covered. Restricting the comparison to singly covered positive samples reduced the AUC to approximately 0.684. No isolated-event subset was available under the frozen 24–6 h definition. Lead-time analysis was also strongly affected by censoring. Of 77 holdout events, only 8 produced strict new upward threshold crossings, while 69 were already above threshold at the beginning of the precursor window and were therefore left-censored. The median lead time among strict crossings was approximately 23.18 h, with a bootstrap 95% interval of approximately [21.63, 23.70] h. This value must not be interpreted as a general flare-prediction horizon. The HLV-derived causal DeltaPhi feature alone showed near-chance direct discrimination, with AUC ≈ 0.513660. In the predeclared chronological logistic ablation, however, adding DeltaPhi to the rolling-variance baseline increased holdout AUC from 0.760489 to 0.802721, corresponding to Delta-AUC ≈ +0.042232. The protocol-compliant 2000-replicate paired block-bootstrap interval for Delta-AUC was approximately [0.016123, 0.068956], entirely above zero. Under the prospectively frozen interpretation rule, this triggers: RETAIN_AS_LIMITED_INCREMENTAL_SIGNAL This result supports only a limited within-source incremental statistical contribution of the DeltaPhi feature. It does not constitute source-independent solar-flare forecasting validation, physical validation of HLV/Spiral-Time, or evidence for modification of standard solar-plasma physics. Temporal robustness across 2024 was limited. Under the fixed precursor and post-event rules, only January, March, April, and October retained both positive and negative evaluation classes and therefore produced reportable monthly AUC values. Eight months contained no clean negative samples after masking and were correctly marked non-reportable. Broad annual robustness is therefore not established. The locked results support a reproducible GOES soft-X-ray temporal-association signal and a limited incremental DeltaPhi contribution while simultaneously demonstrating strong sensitivity to event-window overlap, event density, threshold choice, and class availability. Strong claims of operational forecasting performance, universal lead time, source-independent validation, or year-wide robustness are not supported. The accompanying result bundle contains the reviewer crosswalk, CSV/JSON numerical outputs, figures, catalogue provenance, HEK retrieval audit, source provenance, and SHA-256 manifest. Result ZIP SHA-256: 0069df68c4269cab73844cc0b07f8a9f3d3c90f4ab3fcc57f2f0f7cb93ac289b Authoritative v1.0.3 notebook SHA-256: a751e7c0c9aab25e6d3af1e6c48f45480d4b259508cd43d737a279565f2c7c65