Is Southeast Asia a Substitute for Hainan? A Panel Data Analysis of Hainan’s Inbound Tourism Demand

This study investigates the determinants of inbound tourism demand to Hainan from 22 source regions over the period 2008 to 2023. Employing panel data analysis across seven regional groupings, the results reveal that Thailand serves as a substitute destination, whereas Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam function as complementary destinations for most international tourists. Relative price exerts a consistently positive effect on tourism demand across all models. The adverse impact of the Novel Coronavirus Epidemic (COVID-19) is also found to be statistically significant in every model. Income positively influences tourism demand in most regions, with the exception of ASEAN countries, where tourism to Hainan appears to exhibit characteristics of an inferior good. Overall, the findings underscore that the responsiveness of tourism demand to price-related factors vary considerably across regions, offering important implications for destination marketing and policy design.