Data from: Climate change predicts Quaternary extinctions and extant genetic diversity in a threatened Australian lizard

Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to biodiversity
worldwide; however, estimating its future impacts remains challenging. To
predict and mitigate future biodiversity loss, transdisciplinary
approaches are essential yet seldom applied. Here we integrate population
genomics, quantitative fossil identifications, species distribution
modelling, and high-resolution digital morphology to assess how Quaternary
climate change and projected future climate relate to extinction
vulnerability of the threatened Australian mountain dragon (Rankinia
diemensis). We show that past temperature and precipitation changes have
led to significant range contractions and shifts to higher elevation,
resulting in geographic and genetic disconnection between modern
populations. Several low-altitude populations are now extinct or show low
genetic diversity and high genetic differentiation consistent with genetic
drift in isolation. Models of future habitat suitability predict further
climate-related contractions in remnant populations, highlighting the
urgent need for updated conservation strategies. Our study demonstrates
the power of integrating next-generation data for reconstructing past and
modelling future effects of global warming, to design tailored
conservation strategies for species most at risk of extinction due to
anthropogenic climate change.