A probabilistic model for predicting road network disruption by integrating large-scale flood forecasts, topographic characteristics, and local sensor data

In this project, we aim to predict the impact of storm events on the road network disruption state. We propose a framework that integrates large-scale discharge forecasts from the national water model (NWM) with local topographic and road information. The framework relies on a probabilistic model that predicts the likelihood of road network disruption from NWM-HAND inundation maps and observed road disruptions from past storms. Thus, by assimilating observed road data and NWM-HAND predicted inundation impact, we aim to improve predictions on the anticipated road network disruption state for a particular flood.