FROM ARMS CONTROL TO WATER GOVERNANCE: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR APPLYING CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES TO TRANSBOUNDARY WATER DIPLOMACY

This article develops a conceptual framework for transferring confidence-building measures (CBMs) from the field of arms control to transboundary water diplomacy. It brings together two bodies of scholarship that have so far developed in parallel: the Water Diplomacy Framework proposed by Islam and Susskind, and the classical CBM literature rooted in the Helsinki process and early United Nations disarmament research. The article argues that the two traditions share a structural kinship. Both treat conflict as a product of uncertainty, information deficits and mistrust rather than of physical scarcity alone. Both prefer procedural and incremental solutions to comprehensive settlements. On this basis, the article proposes a three-dimensional model of water-related CBMs, distinguishing informational, verificational and restraining measures, and assesses each dimension against three criteria: uncertainty reduction, escalation prevention and continuity. The model is then applied illustratively to the Amu Darya basin, where the exclusion of Afghanistan from the post-Soviet water governance architecture has produced a pronounced institutional asymmetry. The comparison reveals a functioning but incomplete CBM regime among the five post-Soviet riparian states, and an effectively pre-institutional situation in relations with Afghanistan. The article concludes that CBMs offer a workable intermediate mechanism between purely technical water management and formal treaty-making in basins where legal instruments are politically unavailable. The framework is offered as an analytical tool that can be extended to other asymmetric basins, including the Nile and the Mekong.