The verification and validation strategy within the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP 2)

The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP 2), in the complex terrain of the Columbia Gorge, focuses on a set of weather phenomena that poses particular challenges for wind and wind power forecasting. It further aims to understand and improve the skill (i.e., accuracy) of weather forecast models, particularly the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, in complex terrain. The project also includes an extensive field campaign in the Columbia River Gorge, during which data from many different instruments were collected. The project is described in detail in three journal papers in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (Shaw et al. 2019; Wilczak et al. 2019; Olson et al. 2019). WFIP 2 is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Scientists from four U.S. national laboratories, NOAA, Vaisala, and universities contribute to the project with wide and varied interests and skill sets. Therefore, coordinated verification and validation (V&V) efforts across these member institutions allows for the development of a clear picture of model improvements and scientific findings within WFIP 2. The WFIP 2 V&V team is tasked with providing tools, methods, and guidance to enable repeatable, metrics-based assessment of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and associated modeling suites for analysis and forecasting of mesoscale weather phenomena that are important for wind energy in the Columbia River Gorge and other parts of the continental United States. This report summarizes what has been accomplished within the duration of the WFIP 2 project (4 years) by the V&V team. It is intended to be used to look up expectations, definitions, tools, results, and agreed-upon processes. Lessons learned toward an integrated V&V process across DOE’s Atmosphere to Electrons (A2e) initiative are presented as well.