Hydraulic Inputs and Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator (FluEgg) Results for Simulations of Silver Carp Egg and Larval Drift in the Upper Mississippi River, Pools 1-10

Invasive carp captures in Minnesota waters of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) have increased following a high-water event in 2019 (Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, 2024), raising concerns about the potential for reproduction to occur in this reach, although no evidence of reproduction has been found to date (as of October 2024). To examine the potential for successful recruitment of invasive carp in the UMR, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, simulated the drift and dispersion of invasive silver carp eggs and larvae following hypothetical spawning events in Pools 1-10 of the UMR using the Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator (FluEgg) version 4.1.1 (Garcia and others, 2013; Domanski, 2020). FluEgg models the drift and dispersion of invasive carp eggs and larvae in fluvial environments. The eggs develop, changing in size and density, and eventually hatch into larvae. The simulations end when the larvae reach the gas bladder inflation stage. 

This page contains the hydraulic inputs and results for FluEgg simulations comprising all combinations of nine flows in cubic feet per second (cfs) (30,000, 40,000, 55,000, 80,000, 100,000, 120,000, 140,000, 160,000, and 180,000), five water temperatures in degrees Celsius (18, 20, 22, 24, and 26), and eleven hypothetical spawning locations (tailwaters of Coon Rapids Dam (CRD), Lower St. Anthony Falls Lock and Dam, and Lock and Dams (LD) 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5A, 6, 7, 8). The nine steady-state (not varying in time) flows were selected to span the range between the mean annual flow (30,100 cfs; Granato and others, 2017) and the 1 percent annual exceedance probability flood (239,000 cfs; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2004) at USGS streamgage 05378500 (Mississippi River at Winona, MN). These 495 hypothetical spawning scenarios were run from fertilization until the gas bladder inflation stage and exported in FluEgg’s "condensed" file format, in which the individual egg/larva positions at each timestep are summarized by computing the positions of 101 quantiles. An additional set of 72 FluEgg simulations for a selection of scenarios with spawning in the tailwaters of LD 2 and 5 were run from fertilization until hatching and exported in FluEgg’s “full” file format, which records the position of each egg/larva at each timestep. The FluEgg results were exported as Hierarchical Data Format version 5 (HDF5) files for both the condensed and full export options. A complete list of simulations and input parameters is included in this data release.

FluEgg requires the user to provide hydraulic data to drive the drift model. The hydraulic inputs for these FluEgg simulations were derived from an existing unsteady-state (varying in time) hydraulic model of the study reach developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2020). For each of the nine steady flows listed above, hydraulic parameters were extracted from the hydraulic model at a timestep for which the modeled flow at the Winona streamgage (05378500) was within 500 cfs of the target steady flow. All the timesteps selected were in March or April 2019. These "snapshots in time" from the unsteady hydraulic model were used as approximations of steady flow conditions in the FluEgg simulations.

The upstream end of the model domain (0.0 river kilometers (rkm)) is located in the tailwater of CRD in Coon Rapids, Minnesota. The downstream end of the model domain (434.11 rkm) extends partway into Pool 11, downstream from Guttenberg, Iowa. In FluEgg, the hydraulic conditions at the downstream end of the model domain extend infinitely downstream to allow eggs and larvae to drift beyond the model domain. Therefore, any drift distances greater than 434.11 rkm should be excluded from further analysis of these data.

This data release includes:

umr_steady_fluegg_sim_list.csv: comma-separated values (csv) file listing the simulation parameters used for the FluEgg simulations.
umr_steady_fluegg_inputs.zip: zipped folder containing csv files used as the hydraulic inputs for the FluEgg simulations.
umr_centerline.zip: zipped folder containing a shapefile of the UMR centerline that represents the model domain.
11 zipped folders containing condensed FluEgg results files (Hierarchical Data Format (HDF5)), grouped by spawning location. The folder names follow the convention umr_LOC.zip, where LOC refers to the spawning location (CRD, LSAF, LD1, LD2, LD3, LD4, LD5, LD5A, LD6, LD7, LD8)
18 zipped folders containing full FluEgg results files (HDF5), grouped by spawning location and flow. The folder names follow the convention umr_LOC_FLOWcfs_full.zip, where LOC refers to the spawning location (LD2, LD5) and FLOW refers to the flow condition in cfs (30000, 40000, 55000, 80000, 100000, 120000, 140000, 160000, 180000).

References Cited:

Domanski, M.M., Berutti, M.C., 2020, FluEgg, version 4.1.1, U.S. Geological Survey software release, accessed on August 2020, at https://doi.org/10.5066/P93UCQR2.

Garcia, T., Jackson, P.R., Murphy, E.A., Valocchi, A.J., Garcia, M.H., 2013, Development of a Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator to evaluate the transport and dispersion of Asian carp eggs in rivers: Ecological Modelling v. 263, p. 211–222. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.05.005.

Granato G.E., Ries, K.G., III, and Steeves, P.A., 2017, Compilation of streamflow statistics calculated from daily mean streamflow data collected during water years 1901–2015 for selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2017-1108, 17 p. https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171108.

Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, 2024, Minnesota Invasive Carp Action Plan, accessed on October 23, 2024 at https://files.dnr.state.mn.us/natural_resources/invasives/aquaticanimals/invasivecarp/invasive-carp-action-plan-2024.pdf.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2004, Upper Mississippi River System Flow Frequency Study - Hydrology and Hydraulic Appendix, Appendix B St. Paul District, accessed on November 30, 2023, at https://www.mvr.usace.army.mil/Portals/48/docs/FRM/UpperMissFlowFreq/App.%20B%20St.%20Paul%20Dist.%20Hydrology_Hydraulics.pdf.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2020. Upper Mississippi River Phase IV Flood Risk Management Existing Conditions Hydraulic Model Documentation Report, accessed on February 6, 2023, at https://www.mvr.usace.army.mil/Portals/48/docs/FRM/UMR%20PHASE%20IV%20HYDRAULIC%20MODEL%20DOCUMENTATION%20REPORT.pdf.