The Potential Distribution Pattern and Ecological Suitability of <i>Anoplophora horsfieldi Hope </i>in China Based on MaxEnt Model Analysis

The <i>Anoplophora horsfieldi Hope</i>, a pest belonging to the Cerambycidae family, is widely distributed across China and infests various living trees, posing a serious threat to the development of agricultural and forestry production as well as ecological security. This study, based on 155 geographic distribution coordinates of A. horsfieldi provided by the Global Biodiversity Information Network (GBIF, http://www.gbif.org), utilized the Jackknife method and Pearson correlation coefficient to screen key environmental factors influencing its distribution. The MaxEnt 3.4.4 ecological niche model and ArcGIS 10.8 geographic information system software were employed to predict the potential suitable distribution areas of this species for the periods 2041–2060 and 2081–2100.The results indicate that the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of A. horsfieldi include Mean Diurnal Range (bio2), Temperature Annual Range (bio7), Precipitation of Driest Quarter (bio17), and Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter (bio8). Under current climate conditions, the total area of potential suitable distribution for A. horsfieldi is approximately 5.9687 × 10⁴ km², primarily concentrated in Central, South, East, and Southwest China. For the three future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), the medium and low suitability areas for A. horsfieldi show relatively stable changes overall, but the expansion of high suitability areas exhibits significant fluctuations, particularly in regions such as Guangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, and Taiwan in South, Southwest, and East China, where a clear increasing trend is observed. Model validation results show that the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) is 0.966, indicating high accuracy of the simulation results.This study provides a scientific theoretical basis for forestry-related departments to control the spread of A.horsfieldi, while also laying a solid theoretical foundation and practical experience for future ecological protection and biosafety efforts.霍氏星天牛（Anoplophora horsfieldi Hope）是隶属于天牛科（Cerambycidae）的蛀干害虫，广泛分布于中国境内，可侵染多种活立木，对农林生产发展与生态安全构成严重威胁。本研究依托全球生物多样性信息网络（Global Biodiversity Information Network，GBIF，http://www.gbif.org）提供的155条霍氏星天牛地理分布坐标数据，采用刀切法（Jackknife method）与皮尔逊相关系数（Pearson correlation coefficient）筛选影响其分布的关键环境因子，并借助MaxEnt 3.4.4生态位模型及ArcGIS 10.8地理信息系统软件，预测了该物种在2041–2060年、2081–2100年两个时段的潜在适生分布区。研究结果显示，影响霍氏星天牛分布的主要环境因子包括昼夜温差均值（bio2）、气温年较差（bio7）、最干季降水量（bio17）及最湿季平均气温（bio8）。在当前气候情境下，霍氏星天牛的潜在适生分布总面积约为5.9687×10⁴ km²，主要集中于中国华中、华南、华东及西南地区。针对SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5及SSP5-8.5三种未来气候情景，该害虫的中低适生区整体变化相对平稳，但高适生区的扩张呈现显著波动，尤其在华南、西南及华东的广西、广东、四川与台湾等区域，高适生区表现出明显的扩张趋势。模型验证结果表明，受试者工作特征（Receiver Operating Characteristic，ROC）曲线下面积（AUC）为0.966，证实本次模拟结果具备较高精度。本研究可为林业主管部门开展霍氏星天牛防控工作提供科学理论支撑，同时也为后续生态保护及生物安全相关研究与实践奠定了坚实的理论基础与实践经验。