Extreme Precipitation Risk – Frequency and Magnitude Shift of Critical Rainfall Thresholds - Aydın, Türkiye - CliResDairy

The hazard component quantifies projected changes in extreme rainfall characteristics derived from EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations in Aydın Türkiye for CLIMAAX Project. The risk assessment evaluates how critical rainfall thresholds (e.g., 100 mm / 24h) change under climate scenarios. Two dimensions of risk are calculated: 1. Frequency Change How the return period shifts: Example: 5-year event → becomes 3-year event→ More frequent extreme rainfall 2. Magnitude Change How rainfall intensity must change to maintain same frequency: 100 mm → becomes 118 mm Risk outputs include: Return period shift maps Precipitation magnitude shift maps Difference maps (future – historical) Folder Structure EXTREME_PRECIPITATION_Risk_Assessment.ipynb Reproducible Jupyter Notebook ├── data_aydin│ ├── 100_year_event.tif│ ├── 10_year_event.tif│ ├── 25_year_event.tif│ ├── 2_year_event.tif│ ├── 500_year_event.tif│ ├── 50_year_event.tif│ └── RP_Aydin_threshold_100mm.tif├── plots_aydin│ ├── RP_shift_change_2041-2070_rcp45.png│ ├── RP_shift_change_2041-2070_rcp85.png│ ├── RP_shift_difference_2041-2070_rcp45.png│ ├── RP_shift_difference_2041-2070_rcp85.png│ ├── RP_shift_percentage_2041-2070_dairy_locations_rcp45.png│ ├── RP_shift_percentage_2041-2070_dairy_locations_rcp85.png│ ├── RP_shift_threshold_2041-2070_dairy_locations_rcp45.png│ ├── RP_shift_threshold_2041-2070_dairy_locations_rcp85.png│ ├── RP_shift_threshold_2041-2070_rcp45.png│ └── RP_shift_threshold_2041-2070_rcp85.png└── results_Aydin ├── PREC_factor_threshold_100mm_24h_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp45_1976-2005_2041-2070.tiff ├── PREC_factor_threshold_100mm_24h_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp85_1976-2005_2041-2070.tiff ├── PREC_shift_threshold_100mm_24h_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp45_1976-2005_2041-2070.tiff ├── PREC_shift_threshold_100mm_24h_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp85_1976-2005_2041-2070.tiff ├── RP_Aydin_threshold_100mm.tif.aux.xml ├── RP_shift_threshold_100mm_24h_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp45_1976-2005_2041-2070.tiff └── RP_shift_threshold_100mm_24h_ichec-ec-earth_knmi-racmo22e_rcp85_1976-2005_2041-2070.tiff