Unlocking Dysprosium Constraints for China’s 1.5 °C Climate Target

Some key low-carbon technologies, ranging from wind turbines
to
electric vehicles, are underpinned by the strong rare-earth-based
permanent magnets of the Nd, Pr (Dy)–Fe–Nb type (NdFeB).
These NdFeB magnets, which are sensitive to demagnetization with temperature
elevation (the Curie point), require the addition of variable amounts
of dysprosium (Dy), where an elevation of the Curie point is needed
to meet operational conditions. Given that China is the world’s
largest REE supplier with abundant REE reserves, the impact of an
ambitious 1.5 °C climate target on China’s Dy supply chain
has sparked widespread concern. Here, we explore future trends and
innovation strategies associated with the linkage between Dy and NdFeBs
under various climate scenarios in China. We find China alone is expected
to exhaust the global present Dy reserve within the next 2–3
decades to facilitate the 1.5 °C climate target. By implementing
global available innovation strategies, such as material substitution,
reduction, and recycling, it is possible to avoid 48%–68% of
China’s cumulative demand for Dy. Nevertheless, ongoing efforts
in REE exploration and production are still required to meet China’s
growing Dy demand, which will face competition from the United States,
European Union, and other countries with ambitious climate targets.
Thus, our analysis urges China and those nations to form wider cooperation
in REE supply chains as well as in NdFeB innovation for the realization
of a global climate-safe future.