The Impact Of Covid-19 Residential Quarantines On Patterns Of Violence Against Women In Colombia

This study examines aggregate crime rates and the spatial distribution of violence against women (VAW) both before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. It also explores the influence of socioeconomic and situational factors on these trends. The analysis assesses potential variations across different pandemic phases by addressing the following research questions: (1) Did VAW incident rates change during the different pandemic phases? (2) Did the spatial distribution of VAW incidents per municipality in Colombia change before, during, and after the pandemic? and (3) What key determinants significantly impacted VAW rates during the study period? Given the documented global rise in domestic and intimate partner violence against women during the pandemic, we hypothesized an increase in VAW incidents in Colombia from 2020 to 2022. Furthermore, based on existing literature, we predicted that urban municipalities, poverty, lack of education, coca cultivation, and the presence of non-state armed actors would predict higher VAW at the municipality level. Finally, we expected statistically significant VAW hot spots to remain consistent at the municipality level throughout the pandemic stages, due to persistent underlying risk factors in these areas. The findings revealed a significant post-quarantine decrease in VAW incidents, followed by a significant increase after the economy's gradual reopening in September 2020. Notably, the geographical distribution of VAW remained consistent, with persistent 'hot spot' concentrations in the same areas across all study periods. Furthermore, urbanization and higher general violent crime rates consistently predicted higher VAW rates. Conversely, the presence of armed groups and coca production were significant negative predictors, while education's impact on VAW rates was mixed.