Table_1_Hitting the Target but Missing the Mark: Unintended Environmental Consequences of the Paris Climate Agreement.docx

Meeting climate mitigation and sustainable development goals requires rapid increases in both renewable energy development and carbon storage in ecosystems. If sited with the sole goal of maximizing production, renewable energy may negatively impact biodiversity and carbon storage. Here, we evaluated the potential unintended environmental consequences of this type of business-as-usual development scenario. We spatially allocated land-based, utility-scaled wind and solar energy needed to achieve emission reduction goals from nationally determined contributions under the Paris Climate Agreement. Siting was conducted at 1-km resolution and followed a scenario where on-shore wind, concentrated solar power, and photovoltaic solar renewable energy developments were located where wind and solar resources were highest. Once sited, we evaluated the potential losses of natural lands, Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs), threatened and endangered species, and carbon emissions. Over 11 million ha of natural lands can be lost, releasing almost 415 million tons of carbon storage, which equals 8.6% of overall Paris Agreement emission reduction goals. Globally we found that over 3.1 million ha of KBAs and ranges of 1,574 threatened and endanger species could be impacted, with the highest number of impacted species in the tropical countries of Indonesia (282), Malaysia (273), and Thailand (253). Avoiding land-based emissions through improved renewable energy siting can reduce these losses, potentially saving $47.5–$155.9 billion USD based on social carbon costs. Consideration of these impacts will help reduce investor risk to facilitate a timely transition to a low-carbon economy.

达成气候缓解与可持续发展目标，亟需在可再生能源开发与生态系统碳储存方面实现快速提升。若仅以最大化生产为目标进行选址，可再生能源开发可能对生物多样性和碳储存产生负面影响。本研究评估了此类常规发展情景可能产生的未预见的生态环境后果。我们基于国家确定的贡献，在巴黎气候协定下，对实现减排目标所需的陆地、公用事业规模的风能和太阳能进行了空间分配。选址以1公里分辨率为准，并遵循了一种情景，即岸上风电、集中式太阳能和光伏太阳能可再生能源开发位于风能和太阳能资源最丰富的地区。一旦完成选址，我们评估了自然土地、关键生物多样性区域（KBAs）、濒危和受威胁物种以及碳排放的潜在损失。可能损失的天然土地面积超过1100万公顷，释放近4.15亿吨碳储存，相当于巴黎协定减排目标的8.6%。全球范围内，我们发现超过310万公顷的KBAs和1574种受威胁和濒危物种的范围可能受到影响，其中印度尼西亚（282种）、马来西亚（273种）和泰国（253种）受影响的物种数量最多。通过改进可再生能源的选址来避免陆地排放，可以减少这些损失，根据社会碳成本计算，可能节省475亿美元至1559亿美元。考虑这些影响将有助于降低投资者风险，从而促进向低碳经济的及时过渡。