EPITOME ship emissions: Projections of shipping emissions towards 2050.

As part of the EPITOME project, we have setup global shipping emission scenarios. They are based on a combination of the global CO2 ship emission inventory for 2015 produced with the Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model (STEAM) (Johansson et al., 2017) and Arctic fuel consumption and emission scenarios calculated with the DCE ship emission model (Winther et al., 2017).

The scenarios include a Baseline scenario, a SOx Emission Control Area (SECA) and a heavy fuel oil (HFO) ban scenario. The Baseline scenario is calculated in two variants involving Business As Usual (BAU) and High Growth (HiG) traffic growths. The SECA and HFO ban scenarios are given with the BAU traffic development.

Additionally a Polar route scenario is included, with new (diversion) ship traffic routes in the future Arctic with less sea ice. The applied traffic growths and the polar routes are Corbett et al. (2010).

The emissions are monthly on a spatial resolution of 0.1º×0.1º. 

Base year is 2015 and the scenarios are for 2050.

A scientific paper providing details on the methodology behind these data will be submitted to ACPD (Geels et al, submitted). In this paper we apply the data to assess the contribution from shipping emissions to air pollution in the Nordic and Arctic area and the potential benefits of the mitigation options included in the shipping emission scenarios. This paper should be referenced if the data is used.  

The data are given as netcdf files for a number of components. The emission related to the diversion routes is given as a separate field and can be added the other field.