Climate change scenarios differentially modulate the impact of invasion in a native macrophyte species.

Biological invasion and climate change threaten freshwater ecosystems, potentially amplifying their impacts through interaction. Empirical evidence on how future climate scenarios affect invasion processes and native species remains limited. We conducted a full-factorial experiment evaluating the independent effects of invasion and their interaction with future climate scenarios (baseline, mitigation, and business-as-usual) on native macrophytes. We also evaluated the effect of future climate scenarios on the non-native macrophyte species. Climatic mitigation maintained the invasiveness of the non-native while preserving the performance of the native species at baseline levels. The non-native presence under the most extreme climate scenario enhanced native performance, suggesting antagonistic interactions between these threats at the early colonization stage. Our findings highlight the ecological benefits of climate mitigation and emphasize early detection of invasions to conserve native freshwater macrophytes, offering insights into managing these ecosystems under future climate scenarios.