第十届泰迪杯B题电负荷预测

电力系统负荷（电力需求量，即有功功率）预测是指充分考虑历史的系统负荷、经济状况、气象条件和社会事件等因素的影响，对未来一段时间的系统负荷做出预测。负荷预测是电力系统规划与调度的一项重要内容。短期（两周以内）预测是电网内部机组启停、调度和运营计划制定的基础；中期（未来数月）预测可为保障企业生产和社会生活用电，合理安排电网的运营与检修决策提供支持；长期（未来数年）预测可为电网改造、扩建等计划的制定提供参考，以提高电力系统的经济效益和社会效益。

复杂多变的气象条件和社会事件等不确定因素都会对电力系统负荷造成一定的影响，使得传统负荷预测模型的应用存在一定的局限性。同时，随着电力系统负荷结构的多元化，也使得模型应用的效果有所降低，因此电力系统负荷预测问题亟待进一步研究。

Power system load (also known as power demand, i.e., active power) forecasting refers to predicting the system load over a future period by fully considering the impacts of factors such as historical system load, economic conditions, meteorological conditions and social events. Load forecasting is a crucial part of power system planning and dispatch. Short-term (within two weeks) forecasting is the foundation for unit startup/shutdown, dispatching and operational plan formulation within power grids; medium-term (several months ahead) forecasting can provide support for ensuring power supply for enterprise production and social life, as well as making reasonable operation and maintenance decisions for power grids; long-term (several years ahead) forecasting can offer references for formulating plans such as power grid transformation and expansion, so as to improve the economic and social benefits of the power system.

Uncertain factors such as complex and variable meteorological conditions and social events will all have certain impacts on power system load, which brings certain limitations to the application of traditional load forecasting models. Meanwhile, with the diversification of power system load structure, the performance of model applications has also decreased, so the problem of power system load forecasting urgently needs further research.

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集来自第十届泰迪杯竞赛B题，专注于电力系统负荷预测任务，旨在通过历史负荷、气象等数据预测未来电力需求。数据集包含区域15分钟负荷、行业日负荷和气象数据三个文件，覆盖不同时间粒度和影响因素，适用于短期、中期和长期负荷预测研究，以应对传统模型在复杂多变条件下的局限性。