Peak Demand Scenarios

Introduction
Our peak demand scenarios indicate the winter and summer peak demands to 2050 for all Grid and primary substations owned by UK Power Networks which serve demand, based on our Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES). The peak demand scenarios are in the same format as Table 3B of the Long Term Development Statement (LTDS) but show a forecast to 2050 instead of for five years ahead. The LTDS Table 3B shows the best-view planning scenario called Holistic Transition, whereas the peak demand scenarios represent how DFES is converted to substation peak demands for multiple scenarios. The peak demand scenarios are an input to producing the DFES Network Scenario Headroom Report (NSHR) for demand, and are being published alongside the NSHR. 
For further information on the LTDS, NDP and NSHR,  please see Long Term Development Statement and Network Development Plan Landing PageThe firm capacity figures in the 1 May 2025 peak demand scenarios are consistent with the 31 May 2025 LTDS Table 3B and the 1 May 2025 NSHR.

Methodological Approach

Data Collection: Gathering data from various sources, including historical usage patterns, projected growth in renewable energy, and changes in regulatory frameworks.
Forecasting: The process begins with forecasting future network loads and demands. This often involves scenario planning to predict how energy consumption and generation will evolve to 2050. The forecast methodology is reviewed periodically to incorporate new data, stakeholder feedback, and changes in energy policy or technology. Stakeholder inputs including local authorities, developers, and energy providers are included to ensure the plans align with community needs and regulatory requirements.
Analysis of Network Capacity: Assessing the current capacity of the network to identify areas where reinforcement or upgrades are necessary. This includes our planning teams evaluating substations and distribution lines.

Quality Control Statement
Quality Control Measures include:

Verification steps to match features only with confirmed functional locations.
Manual review and correction of data inconsistencies.
Use of additional verification steps to ensure accuracy in the methodology.

Assurance Statement
The Open Data Team and Network Insights Team worked together to ensure data accuracy and consistency.

Other
Download dataset information: Metadata (JSON)Definitions of key terms related to this dataset can be found in the Open Data Portal Glossary: https://ukpowernetworks.opendatasoft.com/pages/glossary/To view this data please register and login.