Field data challenge predictions of universal crop pest proliferation under warming

Models generated from laboratory-based thermal performance experiments
predict that arthropod crop pest densities will escalate under rising
temperatures. Conversely, natural enemies are predicted to decline under
warming, exacerbating pest outbreaks. We tested these predictions using
141,562 field-year observations of 43 arthropod populations across spatial
and temporal temperature gradients. Pests exhibited remarkable
heterogeneity of responses to elevated temperatures, with some populations
increasing and others decreasing. Natural enemies also showed variable
responses to elevated temperatures, with partial support emerging for the
hypothesis that natural enemies are more vulnerable to warming than pests.
Laboratory-measured thermal performance and life-history traits failed to
explain the variability of responses across taxa. Our findings challenge
predictions of universal pest proliferation, highlighting the urgent need
for species-specific monitoring approaches in agricultural climate
adaptation.