Modelled gridded population estimates for Nigeria 2025 (version 3.0)

This data release provides gridded population estimates (at spatial resolution of 3 arc-seconds, approximately 100-metre grid cells) for Nigeria, along with the estimates of the number of people belonging to various age and sex groups. Using robust Bayesian statistical hierarchical modelling framework, population modelling and estimation experts from WorldPop (www.worldpop.org) at the University of Southampton combined ‘head count’ (input population) datasets obtained from the 2022-23 National Malaria Elimination Program (NMEP) with settlement footprint and geospatial covariates to estimate population numbers at high-resolution grid cells. The approach facilitated accounting for the multiple levels of variability within the data, while simultaneously quantifying uncertainties in the parameter estimates. After capturing the spatial variability of population, the modelled estimates were scaled based on the UN WPP July 2025 median national population projections.
These data were produced by the WorldPop Research Group at the University of Southampton as part of the GRID3 – Phase 2 Scaling project, with funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-044979). Project partners included the GRID3 Inc., the Center for Integrated Earth System Information (CIESIN) within the Columbia Climate School at Columbia University, and WorldPop at the University of Southampton. The final statistical modelling was designed, developed, and implemented by Chris Nnanatu supported by Assane Gadiaga. Data processing was done by Assane Gadiaga with additional support from Attila Lazar, Tom Abbott and Heather Chamberlain. Project oversight was done by Attila Lazar and Andy Tatem. The NMEP shared household bednet distribution data along with the location of the households. The settlement footprint data was prepared and shared by CIESIN.