Data_Sheet_1_Informing climate adaptation strategies using ecological simulation models and spatial decision support tools.PDF

IntroductionForest landscapes offer resources and ecosystem services that are vital to the social, economic, and cultural well-being of human communities, but managing for these provisions can require socially and ecologically relevant trade-offs. We designed a spatial decision support model to reveal trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services in a large eastern Cascade Mountain landscape in Washington State, USA.MethodsWe used process-based forest landscape (LANDIS-II) and hydrology (DHSVM) models to compare outcomes associated with 100 years of simulated forest and wildfire dynamics for two management scenarios, Wildfire only and Wildfire + Treatments. We then examined the strength and spatial distribution of potential treatment effects and trends in a set of resources and ecosystem services over the simulation period.ResultsWe found that wildfire area burned increased over time, but some impacts could be mitigated by adaptation treatments. Treatment benefits were not limited to treated areas. Interestingly, we observed neighborhood benefits where fire spread and severity were reduced not only in treated patches but in adjacent patches and landscapes as well, creating potential synergies among some resource benefits and services. Ordinations provided further evidence for two main kinds of outcomes. Positive ecological effects of treatments were greatest in upper elevation moist and cold forests, while positive benefits to human communities were aligned with drier, low- and mid-elevation forests closer to the wildland urban interface.DiscussionOur results contribute to improved understanding of synergies and tradeoffs linked to adaptation and restoration efforts in fire-prone forests and can be used to inform management aimed at rebuilding resilient, climate-adapted landscapes.

森林景观为人类社会、经济及文化福祉提供了不可或缺的资源与生态系统服务，然而，对这些服务的经营管理往往需要在社会与生态层面做出相关权衡。本研究旨在揭示华盛顿州东部大卡斯凯德山脉景观中，生态系统服务之间的权衡与协同作用，我们设计了一套空间决策支持模型。方法上，我们运用基于过程的森林景观模型（LANDIS-II）和水分模型（DHSVM）来对比两种管理情景下，模拟100年森林与野火动态的后果，包括仅野火情景与野火+治理情景。随后，我们探讨了潜在治理效果及其在一系列资源与生态系统服务中的强度与空间分布趋势。结果显示，随着时间的推移，野火燃烧面积呈增加趋势，但通过适应性治理措施，部分影响得以缓解。治理效益并不仅限于治理区域。有趣的是，我们观察到邻里效益，即火势蔓延及严重程度不仅在被治理区域得到缓解，相邻区域及景观亦然，从而在部分资源效益与服务之间产生了潜在的协同效应。排序分析进一步证实了两种主要类型的成果。治理措施在海拔较高、湿润且寒冷的森林中产生了积极的生态效应，而对人类社区的积极效益则与干燥、低海拔和中海拔的森林相对应，这些森林位于野地与城市接壤区域。讨论部分指出，本研究有助于加深对火灾易发森林中适应性与恢复努力相关权衡与协同作用的理解，并为旨在重建具有气候适应性的韧性景观的管理决策提供参考。