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Mosaics of Predictability

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NBER2026-05-01 更新2026-05-09 收录
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We argue that return predictability is a latent, asset-specific, and state-dependent characteristic. We develop an interpretable Panel Tree that endogenously partitions the U.S. equity panel into out-of-sample and persistent mosaic patterns, and estimate cluster-specific forecasting models.

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2026-05-01
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