(Mal)adaptive outcomes of farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate change: comparison of three regions from Turkey

Despite growing interest in research on climate change adaptation in agriculture, scant attention has been paid to maladaptation, which primarily arises from the unintended adaptation outcomes. This paper seeks to explore the adaptive and maladaptive consequences of adaptation strategies employed by differently situated farmers in three selected regions of Turkey (Mersin, Afyonkarahisar, and Şanlıurfa). It introduces the framework of Cyclical (Mal)adaptive Continuum (CMC), which places adaptation outcomes on a cyclical continuum ranging from successful adaptation to maladaptation, including those in between. The research relies on fieldwork (2021-2023), involving survey interviews with 111 farmers, in-depth interviews with 53 farmers, and 29 expert interviews with agricultural institutions in selected zones. The findings indicate that: (a) farmers’ predominating adaptation behaviours lean towards the maladaptive end of the continuum; (b) modern irrigation systems are the only structured adaptation strategy that approcahes the adaptive end; (c) autonomous adaptation strategies are partially effective, while TARSİM (agricultural insurance pool) serves as a neutral or inadequate measure, tending towards maladaptation; and (d) the root causes of these maladaptive trends stem from path dependency due to years of industrial agriculture reliance, the unintended consequences of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), and farmers’ short-term behavioural responses.