Asimina triloba georeferenced occurrence data and genetic data

Aim:  Predictions of species’ responses to accelerating global climate change require an understanding of historical range shifts. However, large-scale phylogeographic studies of Eastern North American understory plant taxa are relatively scarce. Here we employ ecological niche modelling and genetic analyses for inference of optimal pawpaw habitat in the past and future. 

Location: Twenty-six states in the eastern United States

Taxon: Asimina triloba (L.) Dunal (Annonaceae)

Methods:  The present-day niche of Asimina triloba was modelled in Maxent using seven bioclimatic variables, elevation, and location data from field samples and herbarium specimens. To model historically optimal habitats, the present-day model was projected onto rasters of seven bioclimatic variables and elevation representing the last glacial maximum (~22,000 years before present [YBP]) and the mid-Holocene (~6,000 YBP). Predicted habitat suitability for 2070 was also modelled. Additionally, 62 populations ...