A quantile regression forest based method to predict drug response and assess prediction reliability

Drug response prediction is a critical step for personalized treatment of cancer patients and ultimately leads to precision medicine. A lot of machine-learning based methods have been proposed to predict drug response from different types of genomic data. However, currently available methods could only give a “point” prediction of drug response value but fail to provide the reliability and distribution of the prediction, which are of equal interest in clinical practice. In this paper, we proposed a method based on quantile regression forest and applied it to the CCLE dataset. Through the out-of-bag validation, our method achieved much higher prediction accuracy of drug response than other available tools. The assessment of prediction reliability by prediction intervals and its significance in personalized medicine were illustrated by several examples. Functional analysis of selected drug response associated genes showed that the proposed method achieves more biologically plausible results.