Summary of notation used.

The increasing complexity of today’s software requires the contribution of thousands of developers. This complex collaboration structure makes developers more likely to introduce defect-prone changes that lead to software faults. Determining when these defect-prone changes are introduced has proven challenging, and using traditional machine learning (ML) methods to make these determinations seems to have reached a plateau. In this work, we build contribution graphs consisting of developers and source files to capture the nuanced complexity of changes required to build software. By leveraging these contribution graphs, our research shows the potential of using graph-based ML to improve Just-In-Time (JIT) defect prediction. We hypothesize that features extracted from the contribution graphs may be better predictors of defect-prone changes than intrinsic features derived from software characteristics. We corroborate our hypothesis using graph-based ML for classifying edges that represent defect-prone changes. This new framing of the JIT defect prediction problem leads to remarkably better results. We test our approach on 14 open-source projects and show that our best model can predict whether or not a code change will lead to a defect with an F1 score as high as 77.55% and a Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) as high as 53.16%. This represents a 152% higher F1 score and a 3% higher MCC over the state-of-the-art JIT defect prediction. We describe limitations, open challenges, and how this method can be used for operational JIT defect prediction.