Comparison of point prediction accuracy by the best-performing and the baseline forecast approaches.

Numbers show the mean point prediction accuracy of forecasts generated using the baseline v. the best-performing forecast approach; asterisk (*) indicates if the median of pairwise accuracy difference is significantly >0 or <0 at the α = 0.05 level, per a Wilcoxon rank sum test. Note all forecasts were generated retrospectively; to enable comparison of forecast approaches, mobility and vaccination data and estimates of infection detection rate and infection fatality risk during the forecast period were used (see main text for detail).