Estimation of Consumer Surplus (CS).

Central Park is an iconic feature of New York City, which was the first and one of the hardest hit cities in the United States by the Coronavirus. State-level stay-at-home order, raising COVID-19 cases, as well as the public’s personal concerns regarding exposure to the virus, led to a significant reduction of Central Park visitation. We utilized extensive cellphone tracking data to conduct one of the pioneering empirical studies assessing the economic impact of COVID-19 on urban parks. We integrated the difference-in-difference (DID) design with the recreation-demand model. The DID design aids in identifying the causal impacts, controlling for unobservable factors that might confound the treatment effects of interest. Concurrently, the recreational demand model examines the driving factors of visitation changes and enables us to estimate the welfare changes experienced by New York City’s residents. Our findings shine a light on the substantial, yet often overlooked, welfare loss triggered by the pandemic. The analysis indicates that the pandemic resulted in a 94% reduction in visitation, corresponding to an annual consumer surplus loss of $450 million. We noted a rebound in visitation following the initial outbreak, influenced by shifts in government policy, weather conditions, holiday periods, and personal characteristics.