Lineage through time analyses have their limitations: the case of the New Zealand flora

Lineage through time plots (LTTs) are often used to explore past patterns of lineage diversification and community assembly. However, as they are based solely on extant species their ability to accurately depict past events can be questioned. Here, simulation models based on neutral processes are used to explore immigration and extinction scenarios to assist with interpretation of LTT plots generated from molecular clock age estimates for a nearly complete set of extant New Zealand vascular plant genera. With significant genus turnover, model simulations yield smooth exponential and linear semi-log LTT plots. Abrupt changes in extinction and immigration rates imposed in the scenarios caused only slight alterations of the curves. The vast majority of New Zealand vascular plant genera derive from trans-oceanic dispersal, and LTT plots generated from divergence dates and fossil data indicate consistently high turnover. Even major geological and climatic events leave minor signatures on LTT plots. Most notably, the maximum Oligocene Marine Transgression (27–22 Ma), when at least 85% of the current landmass was inundated, isn’t clearly registered. By themselves, LTT plots shed little light on the biotic effects of climatic or geomorphic change in the remote past and need to be interpreted in the light of fossil and geological data.