Simulating Uncertainties in Construction Projects with Chronographical Scheduling Logic

The more complex a project, the more attractive nontraditional project delivery methods like design-build or fast-tracking become with these delivery methods and uncertainty has to be explicitly integrated into the network calculations. Uncertainties assess levels of compliance with various constraints. This paper contributes to the existing body of knowledge by modeling diverse types of execution uncertainties, such as construction operation, execution process, and work with doubtful results, and by extending the traditional logic and modeling uncertainties using the chronographic time-scaled, point-to-point relations, production-based dynamic relations, and function dependencies between in-progress activities. The dependencies between activities can be related to the external scale (usually representing time) or an internal scale (usually representing quantity). Using the Monte Carlo simulation, the paper simulates the impact of construction operations, execution processes, and work with doubtful results. For companies, this approach represents scheduling constraints in a flexible manner and provides a feasible solution for modeling the complexity of real-world projects. - See more at: http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%29CO.1943-7862.0001212#sthash.lcospyaI.dpuf

项目之复杂程度越高，设计-施工或快速推进等非常规的项目交付方式愈显诱人，而在此类交付方式中，不确定性需被明确纳入网络计算之中。不确定性评估了与各类约束条件的一致性水平。本文通过对执行过程中的施工操作、执行流程以及结果可疑的工作等多样化的执行不确定性进行建模，并运用时间尺度化的传统逻辑与模型不确定性，点对点关系、基于生产的动态关系以及进行中活动之间的函数依赖性进行扩展，为现有知识体系做出了贡献。活动之间的依赖性可关联于外部尺度（通常代表时间）或内部尺度（通常代表数量）。通过蒙特卡洛模拟，本文模拟了施工操作、执行流程以及结果可疑的工作的影响。对于企业而言，这种方法以灵活的方式表征了调度约束，并为现实世界项目中复杂性的建模提供了可行的解决方案。