Supply shocks and monetary policy in the Brazilian economy: an analysis of the impact of commodity prices on inflation between 2002 and 2014

Abstract This study investigates how the supply shocks, originated by commodity prices, have impacted on the Brazilian inflation, the way, and how efficiently monetary policy of the country has reacted. To this purpose, a semi-structural model containing a Phillips curve, an IS curve, and two versions of the Central Bank's reaction function were estimated. The method of estimation used was the autoregression with Vector Error Correction (VEC) in its structural version. The results suggest that the Brazilian inflation rate has an important index component, but it is also affected by the expectation that the market shows about the inflation, and by the price behavior on the supply side. They both have some impact on inflation expectations.