Replication Data for: Shocks and Turbulence: Globalization and the Occurrence of Civil War

Several scholars argue that systemic global trends are pulling individuals not only upward toward the global level, but also downward to the local level; the result is a potential loss of authority for the state (Ferguson and Mansbach 2004; Rosenau 1990). Their theory of “fragmegration” can provide a causal mechanism for why longstanding grievances may erupt into civil war at a particular time. While increased global exposure does provide both states and individual citizens with tremendous benefits, sudden “shocks” of globalization can overwhelm a state’s capacity to offset the negative impacts of globalization, thus weakening a state’s capacity to deal with rival polities for the allegiance of its citizens. The present study conducts a cross-sectional logistic regression with discrete duration analysis to test the impact of globalization shocks on the onset of civil wars between the years 1970–1999. The results demonstrate that increasingly dramatic changes in the level of global integration are associated with an increased risk of civil war onset.