Microclimate and forest density drive plant population dynamics under climate change

R code and demographic data related the research article "Microclimate and forest density drive plant population dynamics under climate change" Macroclimatic changes are impacting ecosystems worldwide. The majority of terrestrial species, however, lives in the shade of trees where impacts of macroclimate change are buffered. Yet, how microclimate buffering can impact future below-canopy biodiversity redistributions at the continental scale is unknown. Here we assess the effects of changes in microclimate and forest density on plant population dynamics under macroclimate change. We built 25-m resolution mechanistic demographic distribution models at European extent based on plant demography responses to changes in the environment in a unique cross-continental climate change transplant experiment. We show that changes in microclimate and light due to canopy opening amplify macroclimate change impacts on forest biodiversity, while shady forest floors due to dense tree canopies mitigate severe warming impacts. The microclimate and forest density thus emerge as powerful tools for forest managers and policy makers to shelter forest biodiversity from climate change.