Conceptual Model for Managing Sustainable Development of the Financial Market based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: Case Study of Kazakhstan

Our research questions: What indicators can be used to collate adequate information on financial and economic sub-systems in order to form an integrated figure of economic development? What are the projected dynamics of the development of the financial market of Kazakhstan in the period up to 2025 on the basis of actual data since independence? Do the predicted dynamics meet the requirements of the country’s development? Is it possible to strengthen the dynamics of development and which instruments of economic and financial policy will be most effective?
To build the Conceptual Model (further - CM) for Managing the Sustainable Development of the Financial Market of Kazakhstan, we used two main tools: a simulation method based on a fuzzy cognitive map (Axelrod, 1976; Kosko, 1986) and a method for constructing indicators of the system’s sustainable development by Bossel (1999). This made it possible to create a system framework included economic and financial indicators that form the viability and sustainability of the system, and further, through modelling tools, implement the learning and self-development processes of the system for strategic forecasting and planning. Thus, the advantages of both methods were effectively integrated into the development of the CM. This study, which used as a basis an integrated, systematic approach and mathematical simulation for the model of a highly structured, open and dynamically developing economic system, is an example of a socio-economic model with a high level of abstraction. We created a specific set of economic and financial indicators, including the latest on the factors of innovation, adaptability and behavioural finance that could reveal information about the past, current and future performance of the system.
Based on our research, we concluded that without implementing special policies the financial market will develop at a slow pace and will not play a significant role in economic growth. This model is a practical tool to support decision-making in the formation of financial and economic policies for sustainable development of the financial market.

本研究旨在探讨如何通过综合性的指标体系，全面描绘金融与经济子系统的综合发展图景。具体而言，我们的研究问题包括：如何运用何种指标来有效整合关于金融与经济子系统的充足信息？基于自独立以来实际数据，至2025年哈萨克斯坦金融市场的发展趋势预测如何？这些预测趋势是否符合国家发展的要求？是否存在加强发展动力的可能性，以及何种经济金融政策工具将最为有效？

为构建管理哈萨克斯坦金融市场可持续发展的概念模型（以下简称CM），本研究采用了两种主要工具：基于模糊认知图（Axelrod, 1976；Kosko, 1986）的模拟方法，以及Bossel（1999）构建系统可持续发展指标的方法。这使我们能够创建一个包含经济和金融指标的系统框架，这些指标构成了系统的可行性和可持续性，并通过建模工具，实施系统的学习和自我发展过程，以实现战略预测和规划。因此，两种方法的优势得以有效整合到CM的发展中。本研究以一个高度结构化、开放且动态发展的经济系统模型为基础，采用综合、系统的方法和数学模拟，是一个具有高度抽象性的社会经济模型示例。我们创建了一套特定的经济和金融指标，包括最新关于创新、适应性和行为金融的因素，这些因素能够揭示系统的过去、现在和未来表现的信息。

基于我们的研究，我们得出结论：如果不实施特殊政策，金融市场将缓慢发展，并在经济增长中发挥不了显著作用。本模型是支持制定金融和经济政策以实现金融市场可持续发展决策的实用工具。