IPCC AR6 Sea Level Milestones

Description

This data set contains elements of the sea-level projections associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. In particular, it contains files indicating the likelihood of when sea level milestones are crossed over time. For global mean sea level, it includes probability distributions for all the workflows described in AR6 WG1 9.6.3.2, as well as p-boxes derived from these distributions; for regional projections, with and without vertical land motion, it includes the p-boxes associated corresponding to those shown in the milestone excedance timing figures.

Regional projections can also be accessed through the NASA/IPCC Sea Level Projections Tool at https://sealevel.nasa.gov/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projection-tool.

Required Acknowledgements and Citation

In order to document the impact of these sea-level rise projections, users of the projections are obligated to cite chapter 9 of Working Group 1 contribution to the the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, the Framework for Assessment of Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) model description paper, and the version of the data set used:

Fox-Kemper, B., H.T. Hewitt, C. Xiao, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S.S. Drijfhout, T.L. Edwards, N.R. Golledge, M. Hemer, R.E. Kopp, G. Krinner, A. Mix, D. Notz, S. Nowicki, I.S. Nurhati, L. Ruiz, J.-B. Sallée, A.B.A. Slangen, and Y. Yu, 2021: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1211–1362, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.011.

Kopp, R. E., Garner, G. G., Hermans, T. H. J., Jha, S., Kumar, P., Reedy, A., Slangen, A. B. A., Turilli, M., Edwards, T. L., Gregory, J. M., Koubbe, G., Levermann, A., Merzky, A., Nowicki, S., Palmer, M. D., & Smith, C. (2023). The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-Level (FACTS) v1.0: A platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change. Geoscientific Model Development, 16, 7461–7489. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023

Garner, G. G., T. Hermans, R. E. Kopp, A. B. A. Slangen, T. L. Edwards, A. Levermann, S. Nowikci, M. D. Palmer, C. Smith, B. Fox-Kemper, H. T. Hewitt, C. Xiao, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S. S. Drijfhout, T. L. Edwards, N. R. Golledge, M. Hemer, G. Krinner, A. Mix, D. Notz, S. Nowicki, I. S. Nurhati, L. Ruiz, J-B. Sallée, Y. Yu, L. Hua, T. Palmer, B. Pearson, 2021. IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections. Version 20210809. Dataset accessed [YYYY-MM-DD] at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5914709.

Please also include in the acknowledgements of works citing these projections:

We thank the projection authors for developing and making the sea-level rise projections available, multiple funding agencies for supporting the development of the projections, and the NASA Sea-Level Change Team for developing and hosting the IPCC AR6 Sea-Level Projection Tool.

IPCC AR6 Licensing

The IPCC AR6 Sea-Level Rise Projections are licensed by the authors under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/). The data producers and data providers make no warranty, either express or implied, including, but not limited to, warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. All liabilities arising from the supply of the information (including any liability arising in negligence) are excluded to the fullest extent permitted by law.