Data and Code for Migrants at Sea: Unintended Consequences of Search and Rescue Operations

Many developed countries currently both face and resist strong migratory pressure, fueling irregular migration. The Central Mediterranean Sea is among the most dangerous crossings for irregular migrants in the world. In response to mounting deaths, European nations intensified search and rescue operations in 2013. We develop a model of irregular migration to identify the effects of these operations. Leveraging exogenous variation from rapidly varying crossing conditions, we find that smugglers responded by sending boats in adverse weather and shifting from seaworthy boats to flimsy rafts. As a result, these operations induced more crossings in dangerous conditions, ultimately osetting their intended safety benefits due to moral hazard and increasing the realized ex post crossing risk for migrants. Despite the increased risk, these operations likely increased aggregate migrant welfare; nevertheless, a more successful policy should instead restrict the supply of rafts and expand legal alternatives for migration.